Although the 10-year yield has had a volatile ride at times in 2025, looking back over the year reminds us that the general trend has been down.

Volatility tends to be high in times of crisis, when bond yields are spiking and stocks are lurching. Since his trade salvo in April, Mr Trump has calmed down, America’s economy has held up and stockmarkets have risen to all-time highs.

The bond market could have volatile moments early in the new year, but strategists expect yields to stay pretty much in the range they have been in during 2025 barring an economic shock or major geopolitical event.

The rearview mirror paints a rosy picture. All the primary sectors of the US bond market are posting solid YTD gains, based on a set of ETFs through Monday’s close (Dec. 8).

The central bank delivered another quarter-point rate cut on Wednesday. Why that decision “could look reckless” come January, according to one chief investment officer.

Yields on Japan’s long-dated bonds reached multi-year highs in early December, signaling weak investor demand amid concerns about increased government spending and the possibility of an interest-rate hike on Dec.

Indian government bonds rallied sharply after the RBI announced ₹2 trillion in bond purchases and a $10 billion forex swap to ease liquidity. Market experts Lakshmi Iyer of Bajaj Alternate Investment Management and Dhawal Dalal of Edelweiss AMC said the move helped calm bond markets amid tight liquidity and rising yields.

November wasn’t exactly a great month for the U.S. stock market, although the S&P 500 did manage to eke out a small gain. So far, December is shaping up to be only modestly better.