Tariffs are rising sharply in 2025, with the US rates jumping to 13.3%—the highest since 1939—fueling global uncertainty and triggering a projected $2 trillion hit to global GDP by 2027.

The economy was supposed to crumble. The trade war was expected to escalate out of control. Markets were forecast to plunge. None of that has happened. But Trump’s early trade victory may be short-lived.

The president’s vision for reshaping global trade is falling into place, but he is embarking on an experiment that economists say could still produce damaging results.