The narrative around grade inflation would benefit from some historical perspective, write Christopher J. Richmann and Ryan T. Ramsey. A decade ago, an esteemed professor delivered a lecture upon ...

Widening UST yield spreads could be an opportunity for investors. Though, he bond market is struggling with deciding ...

The Fed is preparing for its first rate cut in years. Discover how a Fed pivot could shape markets, what history shows after ...

Summary Slowly but surely, the inflation outlook for the eurozone is improving. Headline inflation is normalising, but persistent core inflation is complicating things.

History tells us this may be especially troubling: the U.S. yield curve (10yr – 1yr) has inverted before each recession since 1955, with a recession following between 6 and 24 months.

Within a year, the economy was overheating again. By 1969, inflation had surged above 6%; the federal funds rate target, at 9%, was double its 1967 level; and recession set in late in the year.

Bond markets are back in the spotlight as UBS is betting the steepening of both U.S. and euro curves will continue, driven by sticky U.S. inflation, talk of pre-emptive Fed easing, and renewed focus ...

A record wide gap between the yields of two-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury notes may have more to say about the threat of inflation down the road than the popular view that it's a harbinger of ...

My InsiderCampbell Harvey, the Duke University finance professor who coined the inverted yield curve as an indicator of a coming downturn in 1995, doubled down on the accuracy of his famed ...

Even after the inflation data, the futures market is pricing in a 92.4% probability of a 25 basis-point hike to the Fed funds rate to 5.25%-5.50% in the July meeting.