India launched military strikes on Pakistan on Wednesday and Pakistan claimed it shot down five Indian Air Force jets, in an escalation that has pushed the two nations to the brink of a wider conflict.

The question now, analysts say, is whether the two sides will claim victory as Pakistan asserts that it downed Indian jets and gauges the toll of India’s strikes.

The two nuclear powers will need to be able to claim a victory that allows them to save face and avoid a hot war, writes Michael Kugelman.